No Flash, Just Fire: The Unconventional Finals Showdown

So…

I figured I would start a newsletter about the business of basketball the same day the NBA Finals in the Year of Our Lord, 2023…

Complete transparency… I’ve been toiling over launching a newsletter/podcast about the NBA for literally 10 years. But I really didn’t want to do it by myself. Sports are a religion. And I’m from Philly (just getting over my depression about these playoffs this year..). I honestly didn’t know if I could handle the feedback of trolls, narrative chasers, and let’s be honest, Celtics fans. I figured I would have a partner to run drills with, but I’m legit out here running sprints by myself…

Which is cool.

And 100% scary.

Well, here we are. And I’d like to officially welcome you to the newsletter.

Ever feel like you've read the whole internet just trying to keep up with the League, let alone if you’re interested in business side of basketball? That's lowkey how I felt trying to get this newsletter off the ground…

But I'm looking forward to bringing a bit of research to you, breaking down the numbers, deals, and strategies that make the NBA and the sport of basketball tick. From player contracts and endorsement deals to team finances and league policies, I've got you covered.

But this isn't just for the analysts and the number crunchers.

As a fan whose love for the game dates back to the golden era of the 90s and early 2000s, I bring a historian's perspective and a fan's passion to our coverage. So whether you're a basketball junkie, a business enthusiast, or just someone who loves a good underdog story, I’m really hoping that this the newsletter for you.

We’ll break down the business of basketball, one day at a time.

It's only fitting that we launch this newsletter on the day of the beginning of what could be one of the most least watched NBA Finals in the NBA's history - if I'm going by what the non-nerds are saying on Twitter. The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat, two teams that don't exactly top the list when it comes to market size or bandwagon appeal, are about to face off in the 2023 NBA Finals.

As a pure basketball fan (oh yes, this is “I’m 100% better than you, casual” tone right here…), I am pretty excited about these Finals. We're going to see some really great ball, on both sides of the court, by both teams. When you have guys like Joker and Jimmy Butler (or HIMMY BUCKETS™), who had to crawl their way into becoming superstars in the NBA.

The Finals of The Un-AthUletics.

Let’s look at some numbers, shall we?

The top 5 least watched NBA Finals in the modern NBA era are:

1. 2020 Lakers vs Heat: This series ranks at the bottom on average, with a 4.1 rating and 7.66 million viewers. Game 3 of this series in the fanless, months-delayed "bubble" ranks as the lowest rated and least-watched on record with a 3.1 rating and 6.08 million viewers. While we were so happy to have sports back on TV, these Bubble Finals don’t count to good number of “fans” of the NBA.

2. 2007 Spurs vs Cavaliers: This series had an average rating of 6.2 and an average viewership of 9.29 million.

3. 2003 Spurs vs Nets: This series had an average rating of 6.5 and an average viewership of 9.86 million. And let me tell you, this series was a legit snooze-fest. I mean, I love good, clean hoops as much as the next guy, but this series was like watching paint dry.

4. 2005 Spurs vs Pistons: This series had an average rating of 7.1 and an average viewership of 10.2 million. And speaking of snooze-fests, this series had an egregious amount of defense. Jawn had me extra slumberous, true story…

5. 2009 Lakers vs Magic: This series had an average rating of 8.4 and an average viewership of 14.35 million.

I’m really hoping we’re not going towards this.

Star power and market size are a real thing when it comes to viewership. I'm hoping for the best, for both the sake of fans like me, and also for the NBA, even though it really felt like they were trying to help the Celt…

Ayeee, you know what? Never mind lmao…

Here's the thing though: this matchup will probably be a data nerd's dream. Both the Nuggets and the Heat have built their success on a foundation of analytics and smart decision-making. They may not have the biggest stars or the largest markets, but they've used data to maximize their resources and build competitive teams.

I mean.. Joker alone, for example, is an anomaly. His advanced stats, like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), consistently rank among the league's best. He's a testament to the Nuggets' ability to identify and develop talent that other teams overlook.

But fam… That step back, fall away 3 on A.D… COTTDAMB.

Then there's Jimmy, who has transformed himself from a late first-round pick into one of the league's top two-way players. His impact goes beyond traditional stats like points and rebounds; he excels in areas like defensive win shares and real plus-minus. The Heat's decision to acquire and build around Butler shows their commitment to using data to inform their roster decisions.

Unlike the Sixers smh…

This series is also a showcase for the coaching staffs of both teams, who have used data to devise effective game plans and make smart in-game adjustments. From optimizing lineups to exploiting matchups, they've shown how analytics can be used to gain a competitive edge.

So, while the casual fan may see this series as a matchup between two lesser-known teams, us data nerds and non-casuals know better. We’re more than likely about to experience some really great hoops.

On the business side of things, viewership plays a critical role. The audience size directly impacts the league's financial health by influencing various revenue streams.

Let’s not kid ourselves… Millions, if not billions of dollars are on the line.

We’ve been watching these playoff games on ESPN, along with ABC, both owned by The Walt Disney Company, and TNT, owned by WarnerMedia. According to a Bloomberg report, these networks have seen a steep increase in the cost of sports rights over the years. From 1980 to 2023, the five largest professional U.S. sports leagues will have earned more than $210 billion from domestic media rights alone. While the exact amount ESPN pays for NBA Finals isn't specified, it's clear that the cost is substantial. The League will be the next big test of whether media companies can continue to afford popular sports. Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are expected to begin negotiations with the league soon and will likely pay a big premium to renew those rights, which expire in 2025.

Please don’t make me watch games on HGTV, fam…

It's important to note that these costs are not just for the NBA Finals, but for the rights to broadcast a number of games throughout the season. The cost of broadcasting the NBA Finals specifically would be a part of these larger broadcast rights agreements.

The strength of these numbers are SUPER important for this new deal coming.

This is why it’s so easy to fall into conspiracy mode about how these leagues handle these playoff games, and their high market teams and superstars. The game is the game. These owners are about their bread. And low ratings never helps anyone.

I just want to thank you for joining me on this journey.

We're just getting started.

There's so much more to explore in the world of basketball business.

In the coming editions, we'll continue to delve into the numbers, the deals, and the strategies that make this sport tick. We'll look at the stories behind the headlines, the people who make the decisions, and the players who make the game.

But remember, this isn't just about the business. It's really about the love of the game. So, as we look forward to the Nuggets and Heat battling it out in the Finals, let's remember that great basketball can come from anywhere. And who knows? Maybe this series will defy the odds and draw a larger audience than expected. After all, that's the beauty of sports - anything can happen.